Cbonds high yield bond index. Source: https://cbonds.ru/indexes/Cbonds-CBI-RU-High-Yield/
On average, high yield bonds are unchanged in over 2 weeks. Comparable yields of bonds in the High Investment Risk Sector of the Moscow Exchange (PIR) and outside of it have slightly approached. If in the second half of January the difference reached 1.5% per annum, now it is 0.95%.
The high-income segment has grown significantly at the end of last year and at the very beginning of this year. And the last month almost lags behind the broad bond market in terms of current yield (accumulated coupon + change in bond price).
However, loud default stories seem to be not expected. There is still enough money on the market. We will probably see a new decline in yields.
At the same time, the Bank of Russia initiative looms over the sector to prohibit unqualified investors from buying bonds below the A- rating. When it moves from the legislative phase to the legislative one, it will most likely create some kind of overhang of sales or shake volatility. I don’t think the effect will be long-term. The main risk of investing in HPO will always be the risk of default. The rest of the risks are covered by profitability.