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Ivolga Capital company blog | Deposit rates are higher than the key rate, lower than inflation and should provoke demand for stock assets


The MMI Telegram channel gave yesterday an update on the dynamics of deposit rates (https://t.me/russianmacro/10292). The fact that deposit rates in the Russian Federation are higher than the rate is key, an atypical story. The deposits themselves cannot seriously deviate from the base rate, but they put pressure on it. How is the pressure exerted by the increased inflation (the target of annual inflation in February 2021 is 5.5-5.6%). And yet, in the absence of shocks, the dynamics of both the key and deposit rates should be restrained. Suppose that in April the Central Bank rate will rise by 0.25% to 4.5%, as a response to the realities of the money market. Even such a move can already be regarded as active and quick. Surely, the upward shift will occur later. But inflation has not gone anywhere, and in the absence of explosive growth in interest on deposits, money should continue to move to the stock market. First of all, in bonds, where even short government securities (2-year OFZ) today give a premium to a bank deposit of at least 0.5%.

@AndreyHohrin
TELEGRAM t.me/probonds
YOUTUBE https://www.youtube.com/c/PRObonds
https://ivolgacap.ru/
www.probonds.ru



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