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Tickmill Blog | The big correction in EUR and GBP is coming to an end, will there be a last spurt before the reversal?


EURUSD

Scenario implementation: executed

The euro performed the expected scenario quite well, following the expected trajectory and reaching the target area between 1.1788 and 1.1735. Before that, the pair corrected locally to the resistance level at 1.1931, after the retest of which the price, having rebuffed, began to decline rapidly.

So far, there are no clear signals for a reversal. Nevertheless, it is quite possible to expect the formation of a reversal pattern in the near future. At the same time, until this moment comes, it is logical to adhere to the previous scenario for a decline within at least one more final downward impulse.

Forecast: continuation of the downward movement
The big correction in EUR and GBP is coming to an end, will there be a last spurt before the reversal?

Now the pair is consolidating around the level of 1.1788, which does not exclude the possibility of a retest of the expected resistance at 1.1817. Confirmation of the current forecast will be the subsequent rebound from this zone with the formation of a lead-in formation within the next downward impulse, which will aim at the area between 1.1661 and 1.1620.

Cancellation of the current scenario will take place in case of breakdown and growth above the pivot level at 1.1868.

GBPUSD

Scenario implementation: executed

The British pound nevertheless broke out of the long-term sideways movement and rushed down as part of the ongoing correction, fulfilling the expected scenario with the target area between 1.3700 and 1.3617 working out. Although in this case the pair failed to gain height with a local correction to retest the resistance at 1.3955, the price was stopped at 1.3860, which subsequently sent quotes down.
The big correction in EUR and GBP is coming to an end, will there be a last spurt before the reversal?

Immediately after reaching the target zone, the price could not go deeper into it. Obviously, the 1.3700 level provided significant support, which led to a serious rebound and the subsequent upward movement, which is now developing. This may turn out to be a reversal, but this still requires additional confirmation. For now, we adhere to the previous scenario with the likelihood of renewed decline.

Forecast: continuation of the downward movement
The big correction in EUR and GBP is coming to an end, will there be a last spurt before the reversal?

The determining factor in this case will be the ability of the price to gain a foothold below the signal zone between 1.3860 and 1.3955, to which the price is now heading to retest. Confirmation of the current forecast will be the subsequent rebound and return under the resistance at 1.3860 with the formation of a lead-in downtrend pattern, which will aim at the area between 1.3617 and 1.3544.

Cancellation of the current scenario will take place upon growth and consolidation above the reversal level at 1.3955.

USDJPY

Scenario implementation: performed by

The Japanese yen also continued to weaken against the USD, reaching another local high as part of an developing uptrend. The price broke out of the recent range, having previously tested the support at 108.45, after which it continued to rise, but so far the target area between 110.13 and 110.33 has not reached, which is probably a matter of time. While the quotes are trading in the area of ​​109.60, being halfway to the target.
The big correction in EUR and GBP is coming to an end, will there be a last spurt before the reversal?

Taking into account the general picture and the duration of the current trend, we cannot exclude the possibility of a downward correction, the limits of which may lie in the area of ​​the level of 109.01, entering the area of ​​the previous consolidation. Where the price can already find potential for a new phase of the upward impulse.

Forecast: continuation of the upward movement
The big correction in EUR and GBP is coming to an end, will there be a last spurt before the reversal?

Now the price is approaching the price zone with serious resistance, the lower border of which is at the level of 109.95, for the test of which the pair may grow further. The decisive factor in this case will be the probability of a rebound from this zone, which can lead to a local correction to the area of ​​109.01, and if good support is found, it will give an opportunity for a rebound and the formation of another upward impulse with a target in the area between 110.33 and 110.69 …

Cancellation of the current scenario will take place upon breakdown and consolidation of the pair below the pivot level at 108.45.

03/29/2021

Arman Beisembayev, Tickmill expert

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