Change of indices for the week:
RTS Index: 1411.93 (-3.7%)
Moc Exchange Index: 3346.64 (-2.9%)
Dollar to ruble rate: 74.63 (+ 0.7%)
Brent crude: 64.39 (+ 2.7%)
DOW JONES Index: 30886.50 (-1.8%)
• Despite the fact that at the end of last week the RTS and IMOEX indices showed a decline, it did not go beyond the technical correction. The indices are showing consolidation that has been going on for the third month since mid-December.
• The only concern is the RGBITR government bond index, which has been declining for the third week in a row. The dynamics of the bond rate reflects inflation risks, as well as country risks of new sanctions on the sovereign national debt by the new US administration.
• Meanwhile, the new week starts off with moderate optimism in global markets. Futures on American indices are 0.7 – 1.2 %% higher than Friday. And the Asian stock indices are all in the green with Nikkei gains up to 2.4%. The reason for the growth was news from the United States, where from Friday to Saturday the first round of approval of the stimulus package for $ 1.9 billion was passed in Congress.
• Let me remind you that last week, the surge in the yield of US government bonds to 1.6% led to a landslide dumping of shares. By Friday, the heat had died down, bonds returned to a yield of 1.4%. Investors considered the critical threshold value of 1.5%, which roughly corresponds to the current aggregate dividend yield of companies included in the S&P 500 index.
• In addition, the dynamics of new COVID-19 infections is encouraging. So in the United States, the incidence fell by 72% compared to the peak on January 123. The incidence is falling in Europe and Russia.
• Technically, the RTS and IMOEX indices are now at the support level of the MA50.
• Current market signals are assessed as balanced. The forecast for the beginning of the week, after the morning gap up at the opening of trading on Monday, is neutral.
• Day traders / speculators: outside the market.
• Positional: no positions.
• For long-term investment purposes, purchase
Bonds: OFZ-IN of issues 52001, 52002, 52003.
Shares: Polymetal, Severstal, MMK, NLMK, RusAl, Acron, PhosAgro, VSMPO Avisma, Moscow Exchange, Yandex, Mail.ru, AFK Sistema, Surgutneftegaz, Surgutneftegaz prev., NOVATEK, Magnit, Lenta, Gazpromneft, Petropavlovsk (POGR) Mosenergo, RusGiro, Unipro, InterRAO, Rostelecom.
The technical analysis was prepared in the XTick Professional system.