OFZ yields at extremes: for example, 10-year securities exceed the key rate by 2%. Even over inflation (4.9% in December), this excess is quite noticeable. Moreover, their growth (price decline) has been a trend for 8.5 months. The first impetus for the OFZ correction can be called not quite a successful reduction in the key rate to 4.25%, the last – the arrest of A. Navalny and the related disorders.
From the positive, the market does not take into account the rise in oil prices and the stabilization of the ruble. The latter is capable of strengthening.
Taking into account the accumulated negative factors and the positive ones that have not yet been worked out, I think OFZs close to their local price minimums are interesting for buying. The main risk is inflationary, and it cannot be said that it has been overcome. A significant segment of the yield curve today falls short of the actual inflation. Therefore, the purchase of “long” securities with the expectation of an increase in their quotations may be of interest primarily as a speculative transaction.
Source of RGBI (government bond net price index) chart: moex.com
The most liquid regional bonds did not fall at rates similar to those of OFZs (the average decline in quotations over the last two weeks was about 0.15% versus a 0.75% decline in OFZs). I wouldn’t wait for the spring effect either. OFZs are capable of rebounding an n-th number of percent after many months of sliding. Sub-federal papers are unlikely. Variants with yields of 6% + and a protracted slide. Sub-federal papers are unlikely. Among them, there are still options with 6% + yields and short terms, and that’s enough. By the way, apparently, the sector of subfeeds over time begins to be perceived as a single class of instruments, the yields of securities are converging with each other, regardless of the formal credit quality of a particular region.