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Markets and forecasts. Risk time


A week earlier, he expressed concerns about the ruble. The ruble fell after that, while fears remained. I expect its even greater drawdown. You can talk about the reasons for a long time. Or you can follow a simple rule: if a particular market movement is perceived by market participants calmly, it is likely to continue. The fall of the ruble at the end of last week and its further weakening at the beginning of the coming one is accepted by others with the indicated calmness. Perhaps we won’t see 80 rubles per dollar in the near future, but the direction of movement is still in this direction.

The dollar itself has stopped the attack on base currencies. It is possible that it will completely roll back down for some time, while there is a discussion, and in the future, the allocation of state aid to American citizens. The dollar quotes, I think, already take into account both its 2020 emission and the new consumption stimulation package. The promising path of least resistance is dollar strengthening.

Markets and forecasts.  Risk time

I have no opinion on oil. Previously, I believed that the growing oil trend is over. And, in general, it has not resumed since mid-January. However, now without an opinion. While from gold and other precious metals I continue to wait for the development of a decline. Including as a reaction to the gradual strengthening of the dollar.

Markets and forecasts.  Risk time

I will refer to the domestic stock market as not quite clear for myself. Our bond portfolios have a short hedging position in the MOEX Index futures and will remain for the time being. But I’m not ready to argue that Russian stocks and bonds will continue to sink. Although I see more risks in the downward direction.

Markets and forecasts.  Risk time

And these risks are provoked by the global, primarily American stock market. In which the state of carelessness is added to the state of overheating. For a long time I believed that the trend of American stock growth, even if it is not fundamentally justified, is forced to be stable. Now I change my point of view on its instability and vulnerability.

Markets and forecasts.  Risk time

On the charts: USD / RUB rate, EUR / USD, Brent oil quotes, RTS index, S & P500 index futures. Source of graphs: profinance.ru



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