The first thing that catches your eye, at a quick glance at federal loan table – drift of short-term bond yields below the key rate (4.25%). The difference in the yields of short and long securities reached or exceeded 2% per annum. Which creates a practical situation for buying the second. There will be an interesting precedent if the Bank of Russia, against a generally positive background for the markets, nevertheless lowers the rate to 4.0%. In general, there is a mood to rise. Although in a situation of low yields with an increase in the money supply, the higher we climb, the more painful it will fall. Tracking the moment of a reversal of a growing market (in particular, the OFZ market) is not as difficult as it seems. When you start to feel confident that all the bad things are behind you, and the reasons for the market decline are at a stretch, this is the moment. Until it came.
Graph of the net price index of government bonds RGBI. Source: www.moex.com/ru/index/RGBI/technical/
Relative undervaluation regional bonds (both in relation to OFZ, and in comparison with the first echelon of corporate bonds) on the general positive state of the market gave a spring effect. Over the past 2 weeks, securities have risen in price by an average of 0.45%.
Although the rise in prices in first corporate echelon even more – + 0.6% on average for the given sample of liquid securities.
However, equalizing the tax burden on deposits and bonds (deposits with an aggregate amount of up to 1 million rubles, personal income tax is not taxed, which adds benefits to this class of instruments) at the current bond yields, makes the search for gains in subfeeds and first-tier bonds almost an unsolvable task… Unlike OFZs, it is very difficult to “ride” in them on the growth of the long end. So for today I just observe, without conclusions and recommendations.