At the end of December, both PRObonds public portfolios ranked 4th in their ratings for comparison with popular investment instruments. Portfolio # 1 kept it, portfolio # 2 finally surpassed the government bond index in dynamics and moved up 1 line.
The fate of the second portfolio is in question. Its performance was planned to be higher. I will continue to conduct it, but with a revision of the approach to future operations. Portfolio # 1, by contrast, performed even better than expected in 2020.
I predict 2021 will be more difficult for our, first of all, bond investments. With a pessimistic development of events, portfolio returns may drop to 9-10% per annum (I do not claim that this is the minimum, but I assume that we will be able to avoid values below). Not because of a general decline in yields, but because of the highly probable problems of the high-yield bond segment. The stable 13% + per annum that we saw on it in 2019-20 is likely to be a thing of the past. I would expect an average return of 6-8% per annum from the HDI segment in 2021 and 2022. I will write about the reasons for pessimism separately during these holidays. If I am mistaken, and the segment will continue to give the same yields, the PRObonds portfolios are likely to be close to the average rates, i.e. above 12% per annum. If you are right, then the task of our management team is to keep the returns on public portfolios (as well as the returns on asset management portfolios) at an acceptable level, out of competition with bank deposits and ruble inflation. I believe that we will cope with it even in difficult market conditions.
All portfolio transactions are published in the public domain, until they are completed. It is not an investment recommendation (for more details: www.probonds.ru/upload/files/15/35d1bb8a/Disklei%CC%86mer_dlya_portfelei%CC%86.pdf).