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Is Navalny so terrible for the Russian fund?


There were arguments that there are many non-residents on the market, and if sanctions are imposed, they will run away from the RFR. In my opinion, this is, on the contrary, an argument in favor of not imposing country or sectoral sanctions. All of the recent inflow of Western money has been mainly through ETFs to emerging markets. And they now have high risks, first of all, the growing dollar and the yield on American bonds. A collapse in the Russian market can provoke a collapse in all emerging markets, and then in developed ones. Also, don’t forget about CDS, of which it is not known how many have been discharged. And in case of disconnection from swift and sanctions on OFZs, Russia can easily default all its debt, citing force majeure. Big bankers have been in fact part of governments for a long time, I don’t think such things will go away so easily. Well, in addition, a few more minor considerations:

1. Among both Western and Russian opposition talking heads, a consensus has formed that country and sectoral sanctions are bad, because they hit the Russian people, and personal ones are good.

2. The upcoming renegotiation of treaties on open skies and all kinds of weapons. This may drag on for a long time, but in the sanctions regime such things are not discussed.

3. The entire previous story with Navalny shows that the authorities do not cause him any real damage, but simply create a lot of noise so that this can be discussed as long and loudly as possible.

Thus, I see the likelihood that the events around Navalny will provoke some kind of collapse, minimal. A serious correction, both in the world and in the Russian market, is already ripe.

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