Despite the upward trend, which is still in force on the older timeframes, autumn traditionally has an adverse effect on precious metals prices. Observations based on history confirm the seasonal pattern that gold tends to fall in value from August to December, which we warned you about when we suggested considering the short in the published idea of September 8th. And in December, a new round of upward movement begins, noted this on the chart (exception 2012)
What do we have at the moment?
The price has come close to an important level – $ 1,800, where the 200-day moving average is located, which is considered to be a reference point for long-term trends. Since 2019, only once the price was below the line of this indicator and only for a few days, when in March of this year there was a panic associated with the beginning of a pandemic, at the moment there was a liquidity crisis, absolutely everything was sold. Also, $ 1800 is a strong resistance level for the period of 2011-2012, and as you know, during a bull market, there is a retest of previously strong resistance zones + an ascent trend line passes through $ 1800.
At the moment, I do not exclude that the decline may deepen slightly, to the range of $ 1750-1760, BUT if it is below 1750, then this is already a change in the global trend and, accordingly, the cancellation of the idea. How likely is a long-term fall scenario? In my opinion, it is doubtful, I will explain why:
Negative real rates (the key rate is inflation), unlimited monetary incentives, seasonal factors, a decline in the US dollar index are all in favor of continued growth in gold
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