USD / # RUB
Timeframe: 1M, 1D
As for the local picture, the uptrend resumed before reaching the critical level, as it was expected exactly a month ago: https://vk.com/wall-124328009_20204; https://t.me/waves89/2260… Let’s now take a look at the big picture.
Let me remind you that globally we probably develop wave (5) in the composition [C] of “II” / “IV”, the expected shape is an impulse or a final diagonal. If this is an impulse, then wave “2” completed in the form of a combination with a triangle [y]… And now we are at the very beginning of wave “3”. If it is a diagonal, then the sideways trend is more likely to continue for several months, the limit is the beginning of growth. I tend to the second option, based on the macroeconomic environment – there are enough reserves, the dollar is devalued.
Socionomics, its basic principles, do not allow us to put any of the driving waves on the high of 2016, and this slightly narrows the range of alternatives for us. And given that that peak was higher than the previous one, we can also definitely exclude the exit from the triangle on the chart in the downward direction.
See also my New Year’s stream. Almost an hour and a half about the ruble! 😱