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Financial Markets May 5

The Bank of Russia issued a report on monetary policy, the main thing:

“The recovery momentum in the Russian economy has shifted even more than previously expected in 2021, and the return of economic activity to the level of the end of 2019 will take place in the second half of 2021. In 2021, according to the Bank of Russia estimates, Russian GDP will grow by 3.0–4.0%. In subsequent years, the economy will gradually return to the trajectory of balanced growth, GDP growth rates will be 2.5-3.5% in 2022 and 2.0-3.0% in 2023 “

“In February-March 2021, the annual inflation was growing and amounted to 5.79%. Increased costs and non-monetary factors also exerted upward pressure on prices. Under these conditions, the Bank of Russia’s inflation forecast for 2021 has been increased to 4.7–5.2%. The heightened inflationary background requires a faster transition to a neutral monetary policy than was expected in February. Taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will return to the target of the Bank of Russia in mid-2022 and will stay close to 4% in the future. “

“Business activity in the Russian economy continued to recover in the first quarter of 2021. According to the Bank of Russia, the output of basic economic activities (industry, agriculture, trade, construction, transport) increased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and has already returned to the level of the IV quarter of 2019 “

Money market:

• Leading Money Market Indicator: 6-month MOSPRIME rate unchanged, current 5.81% (-0.04 p.p. n / a, +0.91 p.p. YTD)
• 1 month MOSPRIME rate decreased by -0.02 pp. up to 5.26% (-0.09 p.p. n / a, +0.54 p.p. YTD)
• The one-week RUSFAR, an indicator of the value of secured money, declined -0.09 pp. up to 4.84% (-0.1 p.p. n / a, -0.68 p.p. YTD)

Currency market:

• The ruble against the dollar fell by 0.02% to 74.86 USD / RUB (+ 0.6% n / a, + 0.6% YTD)
• The ruble appreciated by 0.07% against the euro to 89.8775 EUR / RUB (-0.35% n / a, -1.79% YTD)

Stock market:

• The total profitability index of the Moscow Exchange increased by 1.85% to 6596.08 points (+ 1.83% n / a, + 10.81% YTD)
• The RTS total yield index grew by 2.2% to 2778.27 points (+ 1.76% n / a, + 10.71% YTD)

Bond market:

• The High Yield Bond Index is up 0.05% (+ 0.18% n / a, + 3.04% YTD)
• The index of corporate bonds with maturities from 1 to 3 years increased by 0.14% (+ 0.27% n / a, + 0.87% YTD)
• Index of government bonds with maturities from 1 to 3 years increased by 0.01% (+ 0.13% n / a, -0.3% YTD)
• The index of municipal bonds based on the 20 most liquid securities fell by -0.04% (+ 0.28% n / a, -0.36% YTD)


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