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Dynamics of the construction industry. Indirect indicators

According to Rosstat, 55,984.7 thousand tons of cement were produced in Russia in 2020 (https://t.me/domostroy_channel/3713) (97.1% compared to the same period of the previous year). At the same time, many construction companies reported a significant increase in revenue and demand at the end of 2020. Thus, we can conclude that there is no growth in the physical volume of construction in Russia. This is indirectly confirmed by the data disclosed by public construction companies. For example, the developer Legenda from St. Petersburg, at a meeting with investors, reported a 6% increase in revenue in 2020, but sales in square meters still decreased by 1.3%. Thus, the picture created by the reporting of construction companies may be more optimistic than the fundamental situation in the housing market. It can be assumed that the revival in sales is largely due to preferential mortgages (this is confirmed by an increase in the share of mortgage transactions with developers), and the increase in revenue is due to the resulting significant rise in prices. Thus, a more significant risk for developers than is commonly believed is the reduction in the government’s concessional mortgage program.

/ Andrey Bobovnikov /

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