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Brent oil is growing, but USDCAD is in no hurry to decline


Scenario implementation: performed by

The Canadian dollar, as expected, continued its decline, but has not yet managed to reach the target area. Nonetheless. There is good reason to believe that reaching this area may only be a matter of time. The pair tested the level of 1.2831, confirming it as a resistance, and after a successful rebound, it began to decline.

The scenario with the start of the decline was confirmed. Now the price is hovering halfway to the target and after consolidation in the current area, the downward movement is likely to continue to a new price area. Therefore, the current scenario is still valid.

Forecast: continuation of the downward movement
Brent oil is growing, but USDCAD is in no hurry to decline

Now the pair needs to gain a foothold in the current area to confirm their intentions. This will probably require testing the current resistance level, which is supposed to be at 1.2782. If successful, we should expect a rebound from this zone, followed by a decline to the target area between 1.2631 and 1.2527.

Cancellation of this scenario will take place with continued growth and consolidation above the reversal level at 1.2831.


Scenario implementation: successfully

Brent crude continues to grow at an accelerated pace, and to date has not only reached the expected target area between 57.77 and 58.71, but also significantly exceeded it, already being in the region of 61.50. Since the last review, the price, without a local correction to support at 56.07, simply continued its upward movement.
Brent oil is growing, but USDCAD is in no hurry to decline

Considering all the circumstances, it is quite logical to expect continued growth within the trend. At the same time, the likelihood of a downward correction cannot be ruled out, since quotes may be close to the top. However, the scenario with the continuation of the upward movement is still relevant.

Forecast: continued upward movement
Brent oil is growing, but USDCAD is in no hurry to decline

Confirmation of the current forecast will be the ability of prices to gain a foothold in the current area. At the same time, in the event of a local correction, the main barrier is the support level at 60.46, which will support the quotes and hold back further decline. In case of a retest and a successful rebound from this level, there is a chance of forming another upward impulse with a target area between 62.00 and 62.70.

Cancellation of the current scenario will take place if the decline continues to the area below the pivot level at 58.71.


Arman Beisembayev, Tickmill expert

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