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Brent finally fell into correction


Scenario implementation: executed

The pair with the Canadian dollar rose in accordance with the assumed scenario, having fully worked out the target area. The upward movement scenario was successfully implemented. The pair confidently consolidated above the level at 1.2453 after repeated retests, but failed to reach the expected support at 1.2319, after which it began to grow rapidly.

In general, the quotes went slightly above the target area, but met resistance already at the level of 1.2782, which they could not overcome yet. Obviously, the current upside impulse is somewhat exhausted and a local correction can be expected before a new impulse. Therefore, the growth scenario is still relevant.

Forecast: growth expected
Discrepancy with USDCAD converged: Brent finally fell into correction

At the moment, an important limit within the current local correction for the price is the level of 1.2672, consolidation above which will become decisive for further movement. A confirmation of the pair’s intentions for further growth will be the subsequent rebound from this zone in case of a decline to it, which will give an opportunity to develop an upward impulse, which will aim at the area between 1.2883 and 1.2926.

A signal to cancel the current scenario will be a decline in the area of ​​the reversal level at 1.2584 with its subsequent breakdown.


Scenario implementation: executed

Brent crude fully confirmed the assumptions about the coming decline. As expected, the price approached the 77.00 level, which held back its gains, acting as resistance. Having rebounded from it, the quotes began to decline sharply, reaching the target area, but the impulse went much further, being noted at the level of 68.42.
Discrepancy with USDCAD converged: Brent finally fell into correction

At the moment, the price is consolidating around the session lows, consolidating above the level of 68.42. We can expect the development of a corrective structure, after which the downward movement can be continued. Therefore, the previous downward scenario remains in effect.

Forecast: decrease is expected
Discrepancy with USDCAD converged: Brent finally fell into correction

In the event of a local upward correction and an attempt to recover the price, the limit is the level of 70.65, where the main resistance is expected, which can hold back further attempts to develop growth. Confirmation of intentions for further decline will be a rebound from this zone, which will aim quotes in the area between 65.63 and 64.61.

Cancellation of the current scenario will take place in case of breakdown and moving above the reversal level at 71.60.


Arman Beisembayev, Tickmill expert

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