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A new wave of growth is forming. Stock Trader Diary


Change of indices for the week:
RTS Index: 1461.99 (+ 2.1%)
Moc Index Exchange: 3427.08 (+ 1.0%)
Dollar to ruble rate: 7371.75 (-1.2%)
Brent Crude: 62.63 (+ 5.3%)
DOW JONES Index: 31390.50 (+ 1.1%)

• At the end of the week, it was reported that equity funds in the US had raised $ 22.9 billion in the week to Wednesday (Feb 10), the largest weekly inflow of investment capital since March 2008.
• Global investors were encouraged by Friday’s news that the Biden administration will resume collaboration with G7 partners to jointly tackle the global economic crisis.
• The IMF said it will expand financial support to weak developing countries in a total amount equivalent to $ 500 billion.
• On Monday, the US stock exchanges will be closed for the holiday: Presidents Day. And in China, the New Year holidays continue, and the exchanges will also be closed.
• On Friday, the CBR kept the key interest rate unchanged at 4.25%. And he made it clear that this level is most likely for a long time.
• There was no full-fledged correction in late January – early February. Everything is heading towards the beginning of a new wave of growth lasting at least until May, and at best until July – the peak of dividend cutoffs.

• The St. Petersburg Stock Exchange will launch morning trading in foreign securities from March 1. Now trading will start from 7 am, and the total duration of the trading session from 07:00 to 2:00. At the initial stage, 50 foreign securities will be traded in the morning session, in the future the list is planned to expand.

Recommendations

• Day traders / speculators: from purchases on futures on the RTS index.
• Positionally: buy shares of Gazprom, Gazpromneft, Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz.
• For long-term investment purposes, purchase
Bonds: OFZ-IN of issues 52001, 52002, 52003.
Shares: Polymetal, Severstal, MMK, NLMK, RusAl, Acron, PhosAgro, VSMPO Avisma, Moscow Exchange, Yandex, Mail.ru, AFK Sistema, Surgutneftegaz, Surgutneftegaz prev., NOVATEK, Magnit, Lenta, Gazpromneft, Petropavlovsk (POGR) Mosenergo, RusGiro, Unipro, InterRAO, Rostelecom.

RTS and MICEX indices.
Dow Jones Index.

The technical analysis was prepared in the XTick Professional system.

America:

DOW: + 0.09%
S & P500: + 0.47%
NASDAQ: + 0.50%

Pre-Market: + 0.47%

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices renewed their all-time highs as investors bought shares in energy, financial and commodity companies, and simultaneously sold shares of large technology companies.
• Market participants are awaiting a new tranche of financial assistance from the US government for $ 2 trillion. to restore the economy.
• Added optimism to data on a sharp drop in the number of new cases of COVID-19 and hospitalizations.
• PayPal Holdings Inc rose 4.7% after several brokerage firms raised their targets. Unexpectedly, Walt Disney reported quarterly profit, the company’s shares fell 1.7% on the report, but rose 13% in the previous two weeks.
• The IPO boom continues. Dating site Bumble is up over 75% in the two days following its IPO. The company’s capitalization is now: $ 8.26 billion.

S&P 500 Index chart.

Europe:

DAX: + 0.06%
FTSE 100: + 0.94%

• European stocks recouped previous losses on Friday and closed higher.
• The growth leaders were ASML and L’Oreal. Volkswagen shares are outsiders.
• ASML Holding NV rose 3% after the Dutch electronics maker said chip shortages slowing car production were a sign of growing demand for cars.
• Shares in the world’s largest cosmetics group, L’Oreal, hit a three-month high after revising their outlook towards significant growth in cosmetics sales.
• Shares in the largest Dutch bank ING jumped 6.7% after it posted higher-than-expected quarterly profit of € 1.05bn.
• UK GDP contracted 9.9% in 2020, the largest annual production decline since the start of the calculation.
• Data released Thursday showed that Amsterdam has displaced London from the top spot as the hub for stock trading in Europe. After the UK left the EU, the Amsterdam exchange took over some of the UK’s derivatives trading volume.

XETRA DAX Index Chart.

Asia:

Nikkei-225 (Japan): + 1.91%
Hang Seng (Hong Kong): –
SSE Composite (China): –
BSE SENSEX (India): + 1.14%

• Japan’s GDP rose above expectations in the fourth quarter to 12.7% YoY, after rising 22.7% in Q3. y / y. At the same time, for the full year of 2020, the Japanese economy contracted by 4.8%. However, in the 1st quarter of 2021, a drop in GDP is expected due to the fact that the country has reintroduced quarantine due to the outbreak of coronavirus.
• Japan’s Nikkei is up 1.9%, climbing to 30,000 for the first time in more than 30 years. Japan is expected to begin vaccinations against the coronavirus this week, which supports optimism and stock prices.
• The leaders of growth in Japan today are shares of Daiichi Sankyo (+ 3.6%) and robotic Fanuc (+ 3.39%).

Nikkei-225 index chart (Japan).

HSI Index Chart (Hong-Kong).

Developing markets:

BRIC: + 0.04%
MSCI EM: + 0.07%
MSCI EM East Europe: -0.10%
MSCI EM Latin America: + 0.42%

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM): + 0.09%
Market Vectors Russia SBI (RSX): + 1.07%

• The Russian stock market was the strongest on Friday in the EM group.

Chart: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM).

ADR (at auction in the USA):

MBT – Mobile TeleSystems ADR: -0.67%
LUKOY – LUKOIL ADR: + 2.06%
OGZPY – GAZPROM ADR: + 2.34%
NILSY – NORILSK ADR: -0.29%

• Commodities are expected to outperform the market.

Oil, energy, commodities, precious metals:

Crude Oil Brent: 62.43 $ / bbl (+ 2.11%)
Pre-Market: + 1.60%

• Crude oil and gasoline prices rose to 13-month highs on Friday amid expectations of further declines in global oil reserves.
• The optimism of oil traders is supported by the prospect of additional financial stimulus from the US, which should have a positive impact on the prospects for economic growth and energy demand.
• In addition, higher-than-expected air traffic in Europe contributes to higher demand for aviation fuel and oil prices. Air traffic in Europe in the first ten days of February decreased by -66% y / y, which is less than expected: -72% y / y.
• Oil prices were also supported on Friday after a report from oil exploration company Kepler, which said that “global oil markets have narrowed significantly” amid OPEC + production cuts, and world oil reserves have dropped 130 million barrels since June.
• Vortexa said last Monday that the amount of crude oil stored globally in tankers fell 22% by weight to 88.750 million barrels.

Oil price chart: Crude oil.

FOREX and foreign exchange market:

• The dollar kicked off Monday with a fresh two-week lows as traders wondered if the US recovery from the pandemic would be as fast as expected.
• On the rise in oil prices, the ruble is strengthening accordingly.

Chart of the dollar, yen and euro currencies.

Graph of the official exchange rate of the Ruble to the US Dollar.

Liquidity:

• Interbank lending rates fell to levels below the key. The Central Bank reassured on Friday that it does not plan to raise the rate.

MosPrime Rate. MosPrime Rate: 4.21% (+0.14 pp)

Economic calendar (Moscow time):

– Day off in the USA and China
– Meeting of Eurozone Finance Ministers
– Monthly Economic Report of the Central Bank of Germany
13:00 Industrial production in the euro area, m / m
13:00 Eurozone Trade Balance

Market sentiment:

News background. Global investor sentiment is positive.
News background. The mood of local investors is politically charged.

Technical analysis (trends):

According to the indices of the Moscow Exchange:
• Short term: up.
• Medium-term: sideways trend.
• Long-term: sideways trend.


© Plan.ru. Stock Trader’s Diary.



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