The returns on PRObonds public portfolios calculated over the last 365 days are 12.0% for portfolio # 1 and 13.9% for portfolio # 2.
Bond swaps have taken place in portfolios over the past couple of weeks. Bonds of Concern Pokrovsky were added, the placement of which took place on 18 February. For this, the bonds of IC Legion and Talan-Finance were completely withdrawn, in the first case due to the approaching offer, in the second – due to the next depreciation, which will reduce the yield (the price is now 103.5%, depreciation will take place at 100 %); a number of other bond positions were partially reduced.
On March 4, bonds of MFC “Seimer” should be added to the portfolios of approximately 5% of assets. Zimer’s placement is by private subscription for qualified investors. From this point on, portfolios are fully available only to qualified investors. It makes no sense to argue with the logic of the regulator that access to the high-yield bond segment should be limited. The segment’s risks are far from the risk of bank deposits or first-tier bonds.
A few words about “Zaymer”. With forecasts for 2020, revenue is about 7.5 billion rubles, EBITDA 2.1 billion rubles. and net profit of 1.6 billion rubles. (Forecast by LLC MFO Zaimer, annual reports for 2020 have not yet been published) Zaimer is one of the largest companies whose securities will be included in PRObonds portfolios. It is also the company with the lowest debt among others. More precisely, Zimer’s net debt (debt minus money) is negative. Until now, in terms of debt to EBITDA ratio, the leader was “Positive Technologies”, which before the placement of bonds last summer had a ratio of 0.66.
In the portfolios, it is not planned to reduce the cash position (now 6% of assets), therefore, under Zimer, shares in a number of securities will be reduced. In PKB the share decreases due to low profitability (high price and close maturity), in other names – to bring the portfolio to greater diversification.
Despite the portfolio yield target for the current year at 12%, the highest yield itself is not a priority target now. In 2018-20, both portfolios showed an average return above 14% per annum (after deducting personal income tax – about 12.5%), and its possible drawdown in the coming year is acceptable. The priority for portfolios is to minimize default risks. Therefore, the share of large companies and bonds with lower rates will continue to grow.
Also, the risks of bond price drawdown remain not zero. For this, a cash position is held, which, if necessary, can be used for hedging.
Not an investment recommendation (https://www.probonds.ru/upload/files/15/35d1bb8a/Disklei%CC%86mer_dlya_portfelei%CC%86.pdf)